Investment Focus | Issue 3

Volatility was the norm in the third quarter. Whether it was the loss of five million barrels of oil per day from the drone attack on Saudi oil infrastructure, Brexit…...
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November 6, 2019
by Dan Lambert

The Return to Volatility

Volatility was the norm in the third quarter.  Whether it was the loss of five million barrels of oil per day from the drone attack on Saudi oil infrastructure, Brexit with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson losing his majority, or Democrats announcing an impeachment inquiry, there seemed to be an endless barrage of bad news.  Despite all this, the markets were mostly positive.

However, there is no doubt that we are in a global economic slowdown, but what about a recession?  The signs are mostly still positive as evidenced by the chart below.  For reference, in 2007 these indicators were all red ‘yes’s’, less than 12 months before the market collapse in late 2008.

Sign of RecessionSource: Manulife Investment Management. As of August 31, 2019

Market Swings

So the key figures do not show a recession is imminent.  However, the reality is that no one really knows when the next recession will hit or when a major market correction will occur.  Trying to time the market swings is an impossible task. The graph below shows the growth that can be missed if one had sold out of the market too early and also the missed growth after a downturn if one did not get back in in time (+44% from the trough plus 1 year).

Returns in RecessionSource: Manulife Investment Management. As of August 31, 2019

Combining Financial Plan with Investment Process

At Caldwell Wealth & Estate Advisory, we continue to stress the power of combining a comprehensive financial plan with a structured, consistent, and repeatable investment process.  We believe this is the best approach for helping our clients navigate through financial markets and ultimately reach their goals and objectives.

It is our privilege to work with you and your families. We hope that you have an enjoyable Fall and holiday season. As always please call us with any questions. We look forward to speaking with you in the near future.

Third Quarter Returns

Third Quarter Returns

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